Sunday, October 3, 2010

Big poll numbers don't a winner make













Some candidates may be dismissive of polls and declare that the only polls that matter are the votes on election day. Should we believe these polls giving frontrunner status to candidates and declaring them the winner even before the votes are cast?




Rob Ford is the perceived frontrunner in the 2010 Toronto mayoral race. Notice I used the word 'perceived'. What does this mean? And does this make Ford the runaway winner? In the 2006 mayoral elections, Barbara Hall had a big lead over her opponents. But voters switched to David Miller whom they chose as the viable candidate and gave him the mayoral mantle.







But wai!t there's a Global News Ipsos Reid survey showing George Smitherman cutting into Ford's lead with the former leading winning by 48% in a 'hypothetical matchup' against Ford's 45% of voters' support. And this was in late September almost a full month before the October 25 Toronto mayoral elections --- that could be a lifetime in politics!




So if it goes down to the wire, who will be Toronto's next mayor?
This will be a nail-biter of an election and who will the gods bless to lead our fair city in the next four years?
As the pundits say, it's too close to call.










1 comment:

  1. Another interesting post. As they say, a week is a long time in politics. And with 3 weeks to go, it's anybody's election.
    P.S. There's something funny with the formatting.

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