Big poll numbers don't a winner make

Some candidates may be dismissive of polls and declare that the only polls that matter are the votes on election day. Should we believe these polls giving frontrunner status to candidates and declaring them the winner even before the votes are cast?

Rob Ford is the perceived frontrunner in the 2010 Toronto mayoral race. Notice I used the word 'perceived'. What does this mean? And does this make Ford the runaway winner? In the 2006 mayoral elections, Barbara Hall had a big lead over her opponents. But voters switched to David Miller whom they chose as the viable candidate and gave him the mayoral mantle.

But wai!t there's a Global News Ipsos Reid survey showing George Smitherman cutting into Ford's lead with the former leading winning by 48% in a 'hypothetical matchup' against Ford's 45% of voters' support. And this was in late September almost a full month before the October 25 Toronto mayoral elections --- that could be a lifetime in politics!

So if it goes down to the wire, who will be Toronto's next mayor?

This will be a nail-biter of an election and who will the gods bless to lead our fair city in the next four years?

As the pundits say, it's too close to call.

Sarah Thompson throws in the towel

Sarah Thompson has climbed down from the mayoral fight --- unbloodied and unbowed. After all that speculation, poll numbers that never went beyond single digits, a campaign that lacked gravitas, Sarah Thompson ends her bid for the Toronto mayorship and throws her support behind 'Furious' George Smitherman. Trying to stop the Ford juggernaut, Thompson says that electing Rob Ford would be the 'worst thing for the city'.

With Thompson out of the race, will there be an 'anyone but Ford' heckuva bruising sprint towards City Hall? Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone isn't following in Ms. Thompson's footsteps declaring that the only time he'll drop out of the race is after serving eight years as mayor. He's been endorsed by Ed Broadbent, Jack Layton and Layton's wife, Olivia Chow. Will these endorsements add wind to Pantalone's sails? We'll have to wait and see.

And what's Ford take on Sarah Thompson's move to the Smitherman camp? The frontrunner wished his now-former rival well although professing that he didn't understand 'what Sarah was doing'.

Be that as it may, the playing field for Toronto mayor has been narrowed down to four. And like in the jungle, it's the fittest who survive.

Suddenly I'm an undecided voter

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy exercising my fundamental right as a Canadian citizen to vote for my chosen candidate. But as election day for Toronto's mayoral races looms ahead I am in a quandary as who to vote for. As an informed voter, I watch candidates' debates, keep tabs on the issues and make a decision even before I cast my ballot. However I seem to be in an indifferent mood as to the choices this time around.



Rob Ford. He's all been but declared the winner. It's all over but the counting and he's Toronto's next mayor. Should I believe the forecasts? For some strange reason, he doesn't sit well with me. Is it his bluster? He's been called a buffoon but with the caveat that he shouldn't be underestimated. Too much bluster? And what about those scandals: drugs, alleged assault on his wife although what politician is as pure as the driven snow? If I feel uncertain about Ford being the next mayor of Toronto, perhaps I should listen to my intuition and scratch him off my list.



George Smitherman. I live in his riding: Toronto Centre and he was my MPP. What gives me pause in voting for him? One word: eHealth! That shadow still hangs over him and will be synonymous with his name the way Watergate will always be connected with Richard Nixon. So he doesn't get my vote.

Sarah Thompson. From one woman to another, she should be getting my vote. Somehow her message fails to resonate with voters and she's trailing in the polls. And there are (unconfirmed) reports that she might drop out of the race to stop a Ford onslaught. Better luck next time, Sarah.




Joe Pantalone. Granted that he served as deputy mayor and knows the internal workings of City Hall which probably gives him an edge over his rivals. He seems to be the greenest of the candidates and advocates a green urban landscape. I'll file him under 'I'll think about it' but still find him uninspiring.



Rocco Rossi. I read his bio, his links with Ignatieff and fundraising successes. He's considered an outsider by some since he's never held public office. Hilarious attempts to show his 'goodfella' side with campaign ads. He might provide comic relief at City Hall. But I'm still not sure whether he'll get my vote.

It's a survival of the fittest. Who'll remain in the political ring as election day approaches? That said I might have to toss a coin. Heads or tails?

Ok, so Rob Ford is not the anti-Christ

Got a kick out of Thomas Walkom's column in the Toronto Star debunking claims that Mr. Ford is NOT the anti-Christ and that his critics should get a grip. So, Rob Ford is not the dreaded anti-Christ --- thank heaven for that! --- and simply a right winger from Etobicoke who wants to be Toronto mayor.

And that's supposed to calm my misgivings about Ford taking the reins at City Hall. Notwithstanding Giorgio Mammoliti's change of heart and endorsement of Ford I'll remain undecided until election day.

The election pot may be filled to overflowing with all these candidates running for Toronto mayor but I'm hard pressed to find anyone inspiring among the lot. In the end there only might be two remaining candidates slogging it out on October 25: Ford and Smitherman.

Anti-Christ or not I'd have to mull things over very carefully and see whose name I'll check on the ballot come election day.

Is she or isn't she?

Sarah Thompson isn't about to wear Hamlet's cloak and deliver a soliloquy --- should I or shouldn't I remain in the Toronto mayoralty races? A dilemma for sure since her poll numbers are weak to say the least. Her campaign office says she's still running for the top City Hall post. There seems to be a slight hesitation that she might throw her support around Rocco Rossi whose odds of winning are iffy at best. In this brew of let's-stop-Rob Ford-at-all costs, is it a game of musical chairs in who'll endorse who as soon as I see the writing on the wall? Ms. Thompson's campaign hasn't caught fire since she threw her hat in the mayoral ring. She calls herself a 'visionary' but her message seems to have all been drowned out by Rob Ford's "I'm going to cut spending"speeches. The latter has scored well with the electorate and is credited for Ford's surge in the polls. With the municipal elections a month away, what is a candidate to do whose numbers are simply not there? Wait, consult, throw her support around another candidate? Not an easy decision. But who said politics was easy?

Running after the Toronto mayoralty candidates

Let the collective groans begin. The polls have it. If the Toronto elections for mayor were held today, Rob Ford would win over 'Furious' George Smitherman. The others --- Joe Pantalone, Rocco Rossi and Sarah Thompson --- bite the dust.